Tapes from UBL, the Hezbollah takeover in Lebanon, and more unease from the IAEA about Iran's pre-nuclear mischief all seem to hint that the Al Qaeda and other radicals really do want to provoke the country into a conservative vote in the fall. You would think that these folks would lie low and play very politely in order to cast the impression that their intentions really are peaceful. After all, who wants to believe that they're really bullies?
Either that, or they can't wait.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Pure Propaganda
No wonder the daily papers are having trouble. That this disinformation should pass an editorial board is jaw-dropping:
Palestinians marked the 60th anniversary of their uprooting with rallies, sirens and black balloons today -- an annual ritual made even darker this year by crippling internal divisions and diminishing independence hopes.
... Today's events commemorated the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who either fled or were driven out of their homes during the 1948 war over Israel's creation. Palestinians call it their "nakba," Arabic for catastrophe.
The only catastrophe here is this version of events. By the way: who initiated hostilities?
Palestinians marked the 60th anniversary of their uprooting with rallies, sirens and black balloons today -- an annual ritual made even darker this year by crippling internal divisions and diminishing independence hopes.
... Today's events commemorated the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who either fled or were driven out of their homes during the 1948 war over Israel's creation. Palestinians call it their "nakba," Arabic for catastrophe.
The only catastrophe here is this version of events. By the way: who initiated hostilities?
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
24 hours of interesting developments
As some members of the media have noticed, Senator Obama may be wearing the victor's mantle, but he's having a difficult time holding up his trousers. The West Virginia result is embarrassing--it would have to be to have him stoop to the ploy of soliciting and announcing Senator Edwards' endorsement. By demeanor and pattern of choices, Obama appears far more desperate than Senator Clinton does.
There is still an endgame waiting to be played out here, and while the result appears to be inevitable, I have a feeling that there may be some unpredictability left in this complex and apparently unstable system.
There is still an endgame waiting to be played out here, and while the result appears to be inevitable, I have a feeling that there may be some unpredictability left in this complex and apparently unstable system.
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
Is Mrs. Clinton finished?
See here. The answer is No. She should (and will, I believe) take her basket (a rather large one) of voters and delegates to the convention and insist on working out a political solution for ending the race formally before a floor fight takes place. With the close margins now existing, she can't be said to have no leverage at all. The Democrats can't afford the luxury of a wrenching fight for the ultimate control of the party, even though that might be a valuable prophylaxis in the long run. They see themselves in a must-win situation, and they want a winning unification ticket in place for the fall. A unilateral withdrawal would not bring this about--it's an acknowledgement of defeat, and with defeat comes the next round of treachery, perfidy, back-stabbing, etc. Withdrawal doesn't push the party's core toward an acceptable middle. Hard-edged negotiation does. I don't see that happening until all the primaries are over. They will be in less than a month, without an official victor. The preliminary rules meetings take place in early June. We'll be able to tell then what the weather will be in Denver.
Well, the results are in.
Obama by a goodly margin in North Carolina, Clinton by a hair in Indiana. I think they both underperformed in their "favored" situations. Perhaps even among Democrats each has a "ceiling." Nothing about yesterday, except for Obama's incremental advance toward nomination, should be satisfying for the Democrat inner circles.
Worth studying: Did Operation Chaos really make the difference? It may not have last time, but the likelihood of an altered outcome in Indiana seems plausible prima facie. Again, this is serious mischief. I'm not sure it helps the Republicans in the fall. At this point they must surely suspect that there might be a law of diminishing returns in sway as the campaign comes closer to resolution. Does keeping these candidates on the front burner of the news help the cause of John McCain in the fall? On the other hand, these two candidates are not at their best as they continue to bicker. The case might be made that the electorate will be so jaded by this uglier sort of campaign that they will just stay home from the general election. Surely Clinton's and Obama's camps will consider this sort of hypothetical situation.
Worth studying: Did Operation Chaos really make the difference? It may not have last time, but the likelihood of an altered outcome in Indiana seems plausible prima facie. Again, this is serious mischief. I'm not sure it helps the Republicans in the fall. At this point they must surely suspect that there might be a law of diminishing returns in sway as the campaign comes closer to resolution. Does keeping these candidates on the front burner of the news help the cause of John McCain in the fall? On the other hand, these two candidates are not at their best as they continue to bicker. The case might be made that the electorate will be so jaded by this uglier sort of campaign that they will just stay home from the general election. Surely Clinton's and Obama's camps will consider this sort of hypothetical situation.
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